In Coffee Talk: Konsekuensi Pasar Derivatif

Bagaimana bila investasi Anda yang senilai Rp.10,000,000,- dalam waktu 2 hari menyusut menjadi senilai hanya Rp. 674,000,- ??

Itulah yang terjadi dengan lembaga keuangan terbesar ke lima di US, Bear Stearns!

Jumat 14.03.2008 yang lalu institusi keuangan ini masih bernilai US$ 3,500,000,000,- , tapi dalam dua hari nilainya menyusut menjadi US$ 236,000,000,- saja !

Kejatuhan nilai tersebut di atas adalah hanya sepenggalan dari proses keruntuhan nilai perusahaan yang pada hari Rabu 12.03.2008 lalu sahamnya masih dihargai US$ 84 per lembar atau total nilai nilai perusahaan US$ 9.92 milyar, namun pada hari Minggu dihargai hanya US$ 2 per lembar oleh JP Morgan Chase melalui proses pengambilalihan.

Tidak mengherankan kalau kejadian yang melibatkan lembaga keuangan yang kabarnya terbesar kelima di USA ini membuat panik pasar keuangan Amerika dan langsung menekan dollar ke titik rendah terhadap mata uang kuat lainnya.

Senin kemarin, untuk pertama kalinya posisi mata uang Swiss, CHF melewati batas 1:1 terhadap US$ di kisaran US$ 1 = CHF 0.980 .

Posisi emas di pasar spot Sidney menyentuh titik tertinggi berikutnya US$ 1,030 / troy ounce sebelum jam menunjuk pkl 08.00 WIB yang akhirnya membuat harga mas logam mulia di tingkat toko bertengger di kisaran Rp. 308,000-an.

Dari beberapa bacaan agaknya banyak "borok" yang belum terungkap mengenai kondisi di Amerika yang sebenarnya, berikut cuplikan artikel yang "mengungkapnya" :

The Truth and Consequences
Of $172 Trillion in Derivatives

Derivatives are essentially bets ... and ... debts.

As an illustration, if you and I were players, I could bet you that a particular firm will go bankrupt between now and year-end ... and you could bet me that it won't.

Or I could bet you that interest rates on junk bonds will rise more than interest rates on Treasury bonds ... and you could bet they will rise less, or not rise at all.

We could bet on virtually any market that moves, or even bet that it won't move.

For each wager, we'd likely borrow huge amounts of other people's money. And in each case, we'd have a contractual obligation (or right) to consummate the deal: To pay up if we lose (or collect if we win).

That's the essence of each transaction in the frenzied, hectic world of derivatives.

But what was once a small sideshow in the traditional world of stocks, bonds and loans has become the towering center ring in the big-top: The derivatives market has now ballooned into a monster of unimaginable dimensions.

At U.S. commercial banks alone, the total notional value of the derivatives is $172.2 trillion, according to the latest report by the U.S. Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). Plus, the OCC reports that:

In over 90% of these derivatives, there is no established exchange that helps protect either party from default.
Just FIVE major U.S. banks control 97% of all the bank-held derivatives in the United States, a concentration of power — and risk — unsurpassed in the history of finance.
All five of these major players would likely be severely crippled, or even bankrupted, by the default of just a few major counterparties like Bear Stearns.
Four have more credit exposure to counterparty defaults than they have capital.
Two have over four times more credit exposure than capital.